Unfortunately, I foresee history repeating itself in 2016.
Donald Trump is leading the republican candidates at this point because his followers are frustrated with Washington politics and the lack of transparency. Trump strikes a chord that resonates with voters seeking raw honesty.
Ben Carson is an honorable gifted surgeon with stellar morals. His gentle and plain-speak campaign are appealing, but I think he lacks the timbre to be president. He would be an excellent Surgeon General.
Ted Cruz is a smart conservative with a surgical strategy for winning the primary and general election. All counties in Iowa and New Hampshire host a Cruz headquarters for promoting his ideas. His plan is to expand the base instead of growing his minority voter base.
Rand Paul is the only libertarian in the republican field. Rand, like his father Ron, believes his duty is to defend and obey the constitution of the U.S.A. This entails shrinking the military, stop nation building, having a balanced budget, eliminating the Federal Reserve, and promoting state’s rights. Our tri-cameral government has gradually colluded to grow federal power at the expense of state’s rights.
The 10th Amendment
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
There are NO implied powers given to the federal government, only those explicitly enumerated in the Constitution. ALL implied powers are reserved for the states.
Here are some of the abuses forced on the States by the Feds: immigration, speed limits, drug laws, same-sex marriage, Obamacare, and arbitration.
The republican field will thin in February after the initial primary states have voted. I think that Cruz is best positioned as the candidate to join for most of the followers bailing from terminated campaigns. The people enamored with Trump are already followers. The race will narrow to a Trump/Cruz competition with Cruz winning the nomination.
In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot lost the Republican nomination to George Bush. Running as an independent, Ross siphoned mostly republican votes from George Bush which awarded the presidency to Bill Clinton.
|Bill Clinton||George Bush||Ross Perot|
Even though Clinton only received 5.5% more of the popular vote, he tallied over 65% of the electoral college. Notice that Perot has almost 20% of the popular vote, but zero electoral votes.
This chart clearly shows how Ross Perot skewed the republican votes which resulted in Bill Clinton’s presidency.
Now we fast-forward to 2017. Here is a fictional scenario.
In 2016, billionaire Donald Trump lost the Republican nomination to Ted Cruz. Running as an independent, Trump siphoned mostly republican votes from Ted Cruz which awarded the presidency to Hillary Clinton.
|Hillary Clinton||Ted Cruz||Donald Trump|
Could Hillary enter the Oval Office the same way as Bill, facilitated by a billionaire running as an independent splitting the republican votes?