Trump or No Trump

Trump Cruz

Politics, like sports, is about momentum during this election season. Donald Trump had a very good night on Tuesday. He was able to increase his lead from 100 to 300 delegates over Ted Cruz. Ted did not have a good night except for two things: Kasich won his home state of Ohio and Rubio suspended his campaign. In an effort to stop Trump from reaching 1237 delegates, Kasich stopped Trump from adding an additional 66 delegates to his total. Rubio’s exit will concentrate the conservative votes for Cruz.

At this point, the only prospects for Cruz are to stop Trump from reaching the requisite delegates before the convention is a contested convention. Trump and Cruz are the only legitimate choices for the convention, but Cruz needs to be close enough for legitimacy. There is a total of 2472 delegates available. About 100 are unpledged and Rubio and Kasich have earned about 300. I believe that Cruz will need to be within 200 delegates of Trump before the convention to have a chance to win. If the gap is wider then Trump deserves the nomination.  My numbers are fuzzy but I think that this is his target. There are only about 1000 delegates remaining. If Cruz can win 50% and hold Trump to 40% of the remaining delegates then he has a good shot at winning the nomination in a contested convention. It will likely depend on  Kasich’s delegates.

Delegate Count on 3/17 Delegate Target at the Convention
Trump 691 1100
Cruz 422 900
Kasich 145 250
Rubio 171 171



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